Yes, this is a crazy headline. And this is a departure from my normal business topics. But I am not joking. I came across some statistics recently that opened my eyes to a new problem that is rapidly sneaking up on us. It is regarding low birth rates for Western countries. Although I have heard this topic discussed before, I never actually considered the ramifications or even the math.
In my lifetime, the world's population has grown dramatically from 3.2 billion in 1962 to 8.0 billion in 2023. As far as I can remember, experts have been predicting that humans are going to eventually use up all the resources on the earth by sheer overpopulation. China had a one child law from 1980 to 2016 to try to stem their population growth.
In 1890, the fertility rate in the USA was 6.5 births for every couple. Today it is 1.6. On the surface, most would say this is good. Having fewer kids will make the earth's resources last longer.
But here is the problem.
And it relates to basic math. It takes a man and a woman to make a baby, and if together, they make less than 2 kids, the population over time shrinks. Think about it. If 2 people only make one, then there is one less person when they die. In order to at least make sure the number of people stays the same, you need to have at least two children for every two adults.
But it's actually higher than that because some people die prematurely, so you really need more than 2 to account for early deaths. The replacement birth rate is 2.1 children per couple. I never thought about that before.
Now, who cares?
Some would say that we have too many people anyway, and if the population got back to the 3.2 billion it was 60 years ago, that would not be all bad.
Here's the problem. The birth rates are not evenly distributed. Western developed countries have low birth rates, and third-world countries still have high birth rates. If you look at the map on the following page, most of the population growth in the world is coming from Africa, where people are routinely starving, and many do not even have clean water to drink.
Then you look at our country by itself. Birth rates have plummeted to record lows all over the industrialized world, and this has severe implications for our future. In America and much of Europe, the elderly count on entitlement programs to support them in old age. If something is not done to reverse this, there won't be nearly enough young workers to support the entitlement programs that the elderly are counting on.
And this problem is coming fast.
Then you look at geopolitics. Islamic nations have birth rates above 3.0 and are becoming more and more powerful each year not because of military force, but sheer population growth. Their raw numbers will allow them to become more powerful and play a more dominant role in world affairs. Despite all of our advanced technology, population numbers still matter, and we really are facing a demographic collapse of epic proportions.
In the U.S., the birth rate has been falling dramatically since the Great Recession, dropping almost 23 percent between 2007 and 2022. It was over 3.0 kids per couple in 1950. Our birth rate has already been cut in half, and it is being projected that it will fall even more during the years that are in front of us.
Institute for Family Studies senior fellow Brad Wilcox said we may already see the effects.
"Below-replacement fertility means closing schools, shrinking college enrollments, fewer workers and consumers, and not enough taxes to pay for entitlements. We're already seeing low fertility fallout hitting schools and colleges. But it will have big consequences for the economy as well, given that there will be relatively fewer workers and consumers, and less entrepreneurial activity, as the population of young adults in America falls across much of the nation."
It is the same story over in Europe. Italy is the worst.
The number of newborns in Italy has been on a steady decline since the 2008 financial crisis, with the average number of children for each woman standing at 1.24 as of 2020 - among the lowest fertility rates in the E.U. At the same time, the population is rapidly aging - the number of centenarians in Italy has tripled over the last 20 years to 22,000 - placing even more pressure on government finances.
The birth rate in Italy has continued to fall since then, and recently, Elon Musk publicly encouraged Italian women to start having more children.
In Asia, things are even worse.
In South Korea, the birth rate is down to 0.81 children per woman. In China, after decades of a strictly enforced one-child policy, the population is shrinking for the first time since the 1960s. In Taiwan, the birth rate stands at 0.87.
Unfortunately, many people out there simply do not understand the importance of this issue. The family is one of the fundamental building blocks of civilization. Without strong families, we cannot have a strong society. For example, one recent study discovered that neighborhoods in the United States "with a greater percentage of traditional two-parent households have less crime."
Conservative Christians have known it all along: Neighborhoods with a greater percentage of traditional two-parent households have less crime. The proof is plain as day. A recent report by the Institute for Family Studies concluded that neighborhoods with strong families are safer. Safer neighborhoods mean safer cities and towns. Safer cities and towns mean safer counties and states. A safer country leads to prosperity and stability for all.
Sadly, at this point, more Americans than ever are not getting married. A quarter of 40-year-olds in the United States have never been married, according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the Pew Research Center. Instead, young Americans are increasingly opting for alternative lifestyles.
If we want our country to succeed, we should be doing all that we can to encourage strong marriages and strong families---and having more babies. We need at least 3 babies per couple to get these demographics back on track. Without the babies, it is just a matter of time before America dies without a shot ever being fired.